Raw-260k Source-Scheduled Reasoning Confirmation Result

Decision: FAIL the immutable internalization gate. Preserve the causal decomposition result, but do not launch RSP-C2 or any successor whose prerequisite is this gate.

Custody

• Frozen board SHA-256: 19a84165f15b19911fc8ef229022e47753833d703d77d1e8cc25db9dfc993474
• Canonical board-row SHA-256: 4afc6c4b0c271ea2f723078ab183e8d1ac1851fd1728898384ef52275887b0e4
• Raw checkpoint SHA-256: 91d5288f184fc5230516add9851ac1a8815d3369ffd816cd7d0c03d8bafc741d
• Tokenizer SHA-256: 87532df5c121753de3b29194e1f9e3de47986d3f5359548fdf93606773a233d4
• Exact patched Newton job: 689542, 256/256 cases, immutable result mode 0444.
• Primary result SHA-256: be2e64c8df2797c3b35c7431b3b6af4d6d7fb3600cd25e5a0371415b45de6a0d
• Independent assessment SHA-256: 0e1e49ea864d3958a765e11ac395aac7e2d87a4b9433950b00a3bb213a7933bd

The independent assessor does not import the generator or evaluator. It reconstructs all 256 board rows, all four renderers, every parse, all 704 operations, exact call accounting, the paired test, and every gate from the raw call records. It rehashes the exact five runtime sources preserved under train/frozen_sources/source_scheduled_reasoning_confirmation_v1/, including the historical Newton model loader used by the running job. Primary and independent counts agree exactly.

Primary result

The paired scheduled-versus-direct table has 101 scheduler-only successes and 2 direct-only successes. The exact two-sided McNemar probability is

5357 / 5070602400912917605986812821504
= 1.0564819673172401e-27

The external scheduler therefore exposes a real capability. This is not a sampling fluctuation and it is not a direct-answer parser artifact.

Family result

Operation-local accuracy, recomputed from each recorded model input rather than from gold chain state, is:

The scheduled chain is strongest on low-base conversion (28/32) and falls on bases 10--12 (16/32), two-digit multiplication (9/32), and sequential multipliers 6--7 (15/32). The original five-case sequential development success was therefore an optimistic small sample.

Locked gates

All twelve integrity gates pass. The miss is a capability miss, not an evidence-integrity failure. Thresholds, prompts, parsers, families, schedules, or board rows must not be changed after reading this result.

Resource and termination boundary

The experiment made exactly 1,920 model calls: 256 direct, 256 whole-work, 704 oracle-state atomic, and 704 scheduled. It decoded 133,120 tokens from 33,122 prompt tokens, with no retries, repairs, search, verifier feedback, or gold intermediates in the scheduled arm.

Every call hit its frozen generation cap: all 512 full calls emitted 128 tokens and all 1,408 atomic/scheduled calls emitted 48. The model therefore has no demonstrated halt policy even when its first-line integer is correct.

Interpretation

Raw 260k contains a renderer-indexed scalar executor

E(current_state, supplied_operation) -> next_state

that a counted external scheduler can compose substantially better than one-shot decoding. It does not yet contain a reliable compiler, operation selector, remainder operator, consume-and-transport updater, or halt policy. The scheduler owns source parsing, operation order, queue advancement, integer parsing, and recurrence. Calling the 115/256 result autonomous reasoning would misattribute those resources to the model.

The next admissible work is diagnostic, not a threshold-repaired C2 fit:

1. test model-owned operation selection separately from arithmetic execution;
2. rank exact updater candidates to distinguish decoding/termination failure from an absent queue-update preference;
3. test for a causal, future-verbalizable operation/state workspace before trying counterfactual interruption training;
4. keep the external scheduler as the favorable systems baseline.

RSP-C2 is closed under its own prerequisite contract. A future experiment must receive a new name and a new preregistration; it may not reinterpret this near miss as a pass.