R12 Raw-260k Updater Candidate-Likelihood Result
Status: complete, independently replayed, negative under the frozen candidate set.
Bottom line
Raw 260k does not prefer the exact correct residual state-and-tail update in
any of the six frozen prompts. The correct candidate is the unique winner in
0/6 prompts by normalized candidate likelihood, total candidate likelihood,
or candidate-plus-EOS likelihood. EOS is unique top-1 immediately after the
correct candidate in 0/6 prompts.
This rejects the narrow hypothesis that free decoding merely hides an already preferred updater behind sequence-length or termination pressure. It does not prove that no other rendering or hidden updater representation exists.
Custody
| Object | SHA-256 |
|---|---|
| Result | 4ca100029806c933ba1d3137044c040b468d380ae9bb9f5efeadcbc949374525 |
| Prompt source | 4505602994a0e337b99359e580a6f2f04fad4d365b2dac59f4c339fac13a7593 |
| Raw-260k checkpoint | 91d5288f184fc5230516add9851ac1a8815d3369ffd816cd7d0c03d8bafc741d |
| Tokenizer | 87532df5c121753de3b29194e1f9e3de47986d3f5359548fdf93606773a233d4 |
| Candidate manifest | 0e01fc54abfe63dcfd063fa6d5a1e4ed46b57aef617580d2cc286db839b3ba98 |
| Tokenized manifest | 13528bacb21d8bca006b434283830d9a0790225dd9a7ddcdcbc8f02e7bac8a99 |
Canonical local artifact:
artifacts/eval_history/raw260k_updater_candidate_likelihood_20260715_mps.json.
It is mode 0444.
The executable and preregistration were committed as 2ad9127 before the
artifact was created. The v1 result schema does not embed those two source
hashes; this is a custody limitation to fix in any successor protocol, not a
reason to alter this result.
Exact results
The gap is winner minus correct normalized log likelihood in nats per token.
| Prompt | Frozen winner | Correct rank | Gap | EOS rank after correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
joint_a | arithmetic execution continuation | 4/5 | 0.879489 | 5 |
joint_b | arithmetic execution continuation | 2/5 | 0.832254 | 5 |
joint_c | arithmetic execution continuation | 4/5 | 0.941860 | 9 |
packet_a | unchanged source packet | 3/5 | 0.516865 | 10 |
packet_b | unchanged source packet | 3/5 | 0.426724 | 6 |
packet_c | unchanged source packet | 3/5 | 0.324967 | 13 |
Mean winning gap: 0.653693 nats/token. All six row diagnoses are
correct_update_not_preferred; the aggregate is
correct_update_not_consistently_preferred.
The format split is informative but not causal proof. Natural Work: prompts
prefer continuing arithmetic, while explicit packet prompts prefer copying the
unchanged packet. Therefore a follow-up should exploit the arithmetic path or
measure operation selection directly; it should not train a packet-rewrite
mechanism on the assumption that one is already latent.
Independent replay
An independent process replayed all 30 MPS forwards from the bound checkpoint.
The maximum candidate-token and EOS log-probability differences were both
exactly 0.0. It recomputed every token alignment, total, normalized score,
EOS rank/margin, winner, diagnosis, summary count, and ledger field. Focused
tests passed 11/11.
The frozen ledger is 12 source rows, six scored prompts, 30 model forwards, 1,080 replayed prompt tokens, 518 candidate tokens, 30 EOS targets, 548 total teacher-forced targets, and 1,598 forward positions. There was no generation, sampling, retry, candidate search, response-derived candidate construction, or cross-candidate KV state.